Adjusting expected deaths for mortality displacement during the COVID-19 pandemic: a model based counterfactual approach at the level of individuals.

BACKGROUND: Near-real time surveillance of excess mortality has been an essential tool during the COVID-19 pandemic. It remains critical for monitoring mortality as the pandemic wanes, to detect fluctuations in the death rate associated both with the longer-term impact of the pandemic (e.g. infection, containment measures and reduced service provision by the health and other systems) and the responses that followed (e.g. curtailment of containment measures, vaccination and the response of health and other systems to backlogs). Following the relaxing of social distancing regimes and reduction in the availability of testing, across many countries, it becomes critical to measure the impact of COVID-19 infection. However, prolonged periods of mortality in excess of the expected across entire populations has raised doubts over the validity of using unadjusted historic estimates of mortality to calculate the expected numbers of deaths that form the baseline for computing numbers of excess deaths because many individuals died earlier than they would otherwise have done: i.e. their mortality was displaced earlier in time to occur during the pandemic rather than when historic rates predicted. This is also often termed "harvesting" in the literature. METHODS: We present a novel Cox-regression-based methodology using time-dependent covariates to estimate the profile of the increased risk of death across time in individuals who contracted COVID-19 among a population of hip fracture patients in England (N = 98,365). We use these hazards to simulate a distribution of survival times, in the presence of a COVID-19 positive test, and then calculate survival times based on hazard rates without a positive test and use the difference between the medians of these distributions to estimate the number of days a death has been displaced. This methodology is applied at the individual level, rather than the population level to provide a better understanding of the impact of a positive COVID-19 test on the mortality of groups with different vulnerabilities conferred by sociodemographic and health characteristics. Finally, we apply the mortality displacement estimates to adjust estimates of excess mortality using a "ball and urn" model. RESULTS: Among the exemplar population we present an end-to-end application of our methodology to estimate the extent of mortality displacement. A greater proportion of older, male and frailer individuals were subject to significant displacement while the magnitude of displacement was higher in younger females and in individuals with lower frailty: groups who, in the absence of COVID-19, should have had a substantial life expectancy. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that calculating the expected number of deaths following the first wave of the pandemic in England based solely on historical trends results in an overestimate, and excess mortality will therefore be underestimated. Our findings, using this exemplar dataset are conditional on having experienced a hip fracture, which is not generalisable to the general population. Fractures that impede mobility in the weeks that follow the accident/surgery considerably shorten life expectancy and are in themselves markers of significant frailty. It is therefore important to apply these novel methods to the general population, among whom we anticipate strong patterns in mortality displacement - both in its length and prevalence - by age, sex, frailty and types of comorbidities. This counterfactual method may also be used to investigate a wider range of disruptive population health events. This has important implications for public health monitoring and the interpretation of public health data in England and globally.

The impact of COVID-19 on mortality after hip fracture : a population cohort study from England.

AIMS: Hip fracture commonly affects the frailest patients, of whom many are care-dependent, with a disproportionate risk of contracting COVID-19. We examined the impact of COVID-19 infection on hip fracture mortality in England. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of patients with hip fracture recorded in the National Hip Fracture Database between 1 February 2019 and 31 October 2020 in England. Data were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics to quantify patient characteristics and comorbidities, Office for National Statistics mortality data, and Public Health England's SARS-CoV-2 testing results. Multivariable Cox regression examined determinants of 90-day mortality. Excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 was quantified using Quasi-Poisson models. RESULTS: Analysis of 102,900 hip fractures (42,630 occurring during the pandemic) revealed that among those with COVID-19 infection at presentation (n = 1,120) there was a doubling of 90-day mortality; hazard ratio (HR) 2.09 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.89 to 2.31), while the HR for infections arising between eight and 30 days after presentation (n = 1,644) the figure was greater at 2.51 (95% CI 2.31 to 2.73). Malnutrition (1.45 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.77)) and nonoperative treatment (2.94 (95% CI 2.18 to 3.95)) were the only modifiable risk factors for death in COVID-19-positive patients. Patients who had tested positive for COVID-19 more than two weeks prior to hip fracture initially had better survival compared to those who contracted COVID-19 around the time of their hip fracture; however, survival rapidly declined and by 365 days the combination of hip fracture and COVID-19 infection was associated with a 50% mortality rate. Between 1 January and 30 June 2020, 1,273 (99.7% CI 1,077 to 1,465) excess deaths occurred within 90 days of hip fracture, representing an excess mortality of 23% (99.7% CI 20% to 26%), with most deaths occurring within 30 days. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 infection more than doubles the rate of early hip fracture mortality. Those contracting infection between 8 and 30 days after initial presentation are at even higher mortality risk, signalling the potential for targeted interventions during this period to improve survival.Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(10):1156-1167.

Methods for modelling excess mortality across England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Excess mortality is an important measure of the scale of the coronavirus-2019 pandemic. It includes both deaths caused directly by the pandemic, and deaths caused by the unintended consequences of containment such as delays to accessing care or postponements of healthcare provision in the population. In 2020 and 2021, in England, multiple groups have produced measures of excess mortality during the pandemic. This paper describes the data and methods used in five different approaches to estimating excess mortality and compares their estimates.The fundamental principles of estimating excess mortality are described, as well as the key commonalities and differences between five approaches. Two of these are based on the date of registration: a quasi-Poisson model with offset and a 5-year average; and three are based on date of occurrence: a Poisson model without offset, the European monitoring of excess mortality model and a synthetic controls model. Comparisons between estimates of excess mortality are made for the period March 2020 through March 2021 and for the two waves of the pandemic that occur within that time-period.Model estimates are strikingly similar during the first wave of the pandemic though larger differences are observed during the second wave. Models that adjusted for reduced circulation of winter infection produced higher estimates of excess compared with those that did not. Models that do not adjust for reduced circulation of winter infection captured the effect of reduced winter illness as a result of mobility restrictions during the period. None of the estimates captured mortality displacement and therefore may underestimate excess at the current time, though the extent to which this has occurred is not yet identified. Models use different approaches to address variation in data availability and stakeholder requirements of the measure. Variation between estimates reflects differences in the date of interest, population denominators and parameters in the model relating to seasonality and trend.

Inequalities in excess premature mortality in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional analysis of cumulative excess mortality by area deprivation and ethnicity.

OBJECTIVES: To examine magnitude of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequalities in premature mortality in England by deprivation and ethnicity. DESIGN: A statistical model to estimate increased mortality in population subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic by comparing observed with expected mortality in each group based on trends over the previous 5 years. SETTING: Information on deaths registered in England since 2015 was used, including age, sex, area of residence and cause of death. Ethnicity was obtained from Hospital Episode Statistics records linked to death data. PARTICIPANTS: Population study of England, including all 569 824 deaths from all causes registered between 21 March 2020 and 26 February 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Excess mortality in each subgroup over and above the number expected based on trends in mortality in that group over the previous 5 years. RESULTS: The gradient in excess mortality by area deprivation was greater in the under 75s (the most deprived areas had 1.25 times as many deaths as expected, least deprived 1.14) than in all ages (most deprived had 1.24 times as many deaths as expected, least deprived 1.20). Among the black and Asian groups, all area deprivation quintiles had significantly larger excesses than white groups in the most deprived quintiles and there were no clear gradients across quintiles. Among the white group, only those in the most deprived quintile had more excess deaths than deaths directly involving COVID-19. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has widened inequalities in premature mortality by area deprivation. Among those under 75, the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic on deaths have disproportionately impacted ethnic minority groups irrespective of area deprivation, and the white group the most deprived areas. Statistics limited to deaths directly involving COVID-19 understate the pandemic's impact on inequalities by area deprivation and ethnic group at younger ages.

Experiences of a 'screen and treat' cervical cancer prevention programme among brothel-based female sex workers in Bangladesh: A qualitative interview study.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about sex workers' experiences of cervical cryotherapy. We sought to understand sex workers' perspectives of 'screen and treat' programmes and their management of the World Health Organization post-treatment guidance to abstain from sex or use condoms consistently for 4 weeks. We explored contraceptive preferences and use of menstrual regulation services. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured interviews with 16 sex workers and six brothel leaders in an urban brothel complex in Bangladesh between October and November 2018. All had undergone cryotherapy. We conducted a thematic analysis using deductive coding, informed by a priori themes, and inductive data-driven coding. RESULTS: Most sex workers could not abstain from sex during the healing period. Consistent condom use was challenging due to economic incentives attached to condomless sex and coercive behaviours of clients. The implications of non-adherence among high-risk groups such as sex workers are not known. Use of short-acting methods of contraception was common, and discontinuation was high due to side effects and other perceived health concerns. The majority of sex workers and brothel leaders had utilized menstrual regulation services. Barriers to accessing timely menstrual regulation and other sexual and reproductive health services included limited mobility, economic costs, and discriminatory attitudes of health care workers. CONCLUSION: Service innovations are required to enable sex workers to abstain or use condoms consistently in the post-cryotherapy healing phase and to address sex workers' broader sexual and reproductive health needs. Further research is required to assess the risk of HIV and other sexually transmitted infection transmission following cryotherapy among high-risk groups.

Mobile phone-based interventions for improving adherence to medication prescribed for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in adults.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of disability and mortality globally. Premature fatal and non-fatal CVD is considered to be largely preventable through the control of risk factors by lifestyle modifications and preventive medication. Lipid-lowering and antihypertensive drug therapies for primary prevention are cost-effective in reducing CVD morbidity and mortality among high-risk people and are recommended by international guidelines. However, adherence to medication prescribed for the prevention of CVD can be poor. Approximately 9% of CVD cases in the EU are attributed to poor adherence to vascular medications. Low-cost, scalable interventions to improve adherence to medications for the primary prevention of CVD have potential to reduce morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs associated with CVD. OBJECTIVES: To establish the effectiveness of interventions delivered by mobile phone to improve adherence to medication prescribed for the primary prevention of CVD in adults. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and two other databases on 7 January 2020. We also searched two clinical trials registers on 5 February 2020. We searched reference lists of relevant papers. We applied no language or date restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials investigating interventions delivered wholly or partly by mobile phones to improve adherence to cardiovascular medications prescribed for the primary prevention of CVD. We only included trials with a minimum of one-year follow-up in order that the outcome measures related to longer-term, sustained medication adherence behaviours and outcomes. Eligible comparators were usual care or control groups receiving no mobile phone-delivered component of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. The main outcomes of interest were objective measures of medication adherence (blood pressure (BP) and cholesterol), CVD events, and adverse events. We contacted study authors for further information when this was not reported. MAIN RESULTS: We included 14 trials with 25,633 randomised participants. Participants were recruited from community-based primary and tertiary care or outpatient clinics. The interventions varied widely from those delivered solely through short messaging service (SMS) to those involving a combination of modes of delivery, such as SMS in addition to healthcare worker training, face-to-face counselling, electronic pillboxes, written materials, and home blood pressure monitors. Some interventions only targeted medication adherence, while others additionally targeted lifestyle changes such as diet and exercise. Due to heterogeneity in the nature and delivery of the interventions and study populations, we reported most results narratively, with the exception of two trials which were similar enough to meaningfully pool in meta-analyses. The body of evidence for the effect of mobile phone-based interventions on objective outcomes of adherence (BP and cholesterol) was of low certainty, due to most trials being at high risk of bias, and inconsistency in outcome effects. Two trials were at low risk of bias. Among five trials (total study enrolment: 5441 participants) recording low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), two studies found evidence for a small beneficial intervention effect on reducing LDL-C (-5.30 mg/dL, 95% confidence interval (CI) -8.30 to -2.30; and -9.20 mg/dL, 95% CI -17.70 to -0.70). The other three studies found results varying from a small reduction (-7.7 mg/dL) to a small increase in LDL-C (0.77 mg/dL). All of which had wide confidence intervals that included no effect. Across 13 studies (25,166 participants) measuring systolic blood pressure, effect estimates ranged from a large reduction (MD -12.45 mmHg, 95% CI -15.02 to -9.88) to a small increase (MD 2.80 mmHg, 95% CI 0.30 to 5.30). We found a similar range of effect estimates for diastolic BP, ranging from -12.23 mmHg (95% CI 14.03 to -10.43) to 1.64 mmHg (95% CI -0.55 to 3.83) (11 trials, 19,716 participants). Four trials showed intervention benefits for systolic and diastolic BP with confidence intervals excluding no effect, and among these were all three of the trials evaluating self-monitoring of blood pressure with mobile phone-based telemedicine. The fourth trial included SMS and provider support (with additional varied features). Seven studies (19,185 participants) reported 'controlled' BP as an outcome, and intervention effect estimates varied from negligible effects (odds ratio (OR) 1.01, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.34) to large improvements in BP control (OR 2.41, 95% CI: 1.57 to 3.68). The three trials of clinician training or decision support combined with SMS (with additional varied features) had confidence intervals encompassing benefits and harms, with point estimates close to zero. Pooled analyses of the two trials of interventions solely delivered through SMS were indicative of little or no beneficial intervention effect on systolic BP (MD -1.55 mmHg, 95% CI -3.36 to 0.25; I2 = 0%) and small increases in controlled BP (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.65; I2 = 0%). Based on four studies (12,439 participants), there was very low-certainty evidence (downgraded twice for imprecision and once for risk of bias) relating to the intervention effect on combined (fatal and non-fatal) CVD events. Two studies (2535 participants) provided low-certainty evidence for the effect of the intervention on cognitive outcomes, with little or no difference between trial arms for perceived quality of care and satisfaction with treatment. There was moderate-certainty evidence (downgraded due to risk of bias) that the interventions did not cause harm, based on six studies (8285 participants). Three studies reported no adverse events attributable to the intervention. One study reported no difference between groups in experience of adverse effects of statins, and that no participants reported intervention-related adverse events. One study stated that potential side effects were similar between groups. One study reported a similar number of deaths in each arm, but did not provide further information relating to potential adverse events. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is low-certainty evidence on the effects of mobile phone-delivered interventions to increase adherence to medication prescribed for the primary prevention of CVD. Trials of BP self-monitoring with mobile-phone telemedicine support reported modest benefits. One trial at low risk of bias reported modest reductions in LDL cholesterol but no benefits for BP. There is moderate-certainty evidence that these interventions do not result in harm. Further trials of these interventions are warranted.

Evaluation of the uptake and delivery of the NHS Health Check programme in England, using primary care data from 9.5 million people: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the uptake and outputs of the National Health Service Health Check (NHSHC) programme in England. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: National primary care data extracted directly by NHS Digital from 90% of general practices (GP) in England. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 40-74 years, invited to or completing a NHSHC between 2012 and 2017, defined using primary care Read codes. INTERVENTION: The NHSHC, a structured assessment of non-communicable disease risk factors and 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, with recommendations for behavioural change support and therapeutic interventions. RESULTS: During the 5-year cycle, 9 694 979 individuals were offered an NHSHC and 5 102 758 (52.6%) took up the offer. There was geographical variation in uptake between local authorities across England ranging from 25.1% to 84.7%. Invitation methods changed over time to incorporate greater digitalisation, opportunistic delivery and delivery by third-party providers.The population offered an NHSHC resembled the English population in ethnicity and deprivation characteristics. Attendees were more likely to be older and women, but were similar in terms of ethnicity and deprivation, compared with non-attendees. Among attendees, risk factor prevalence reflected population survey estimates for England. Where a CVD risk score was documented, 25.9% had a 10-year CVD risk ≥10%, of which 20.3% were prescribed a statin. Advice, information and referrals were coded as delivered to over 2.5 million individuals identified to have risk factors. CONCLUSION: This national analysis of the NHSHC programme, using primary care data from over 9.5 million individuals offered a check, reveals an uptake rate of over 50% and no significant evidence of inequity by ethnicity or deprivation. To maximise the anticipated value of the NHSHC, we suggest continued action is needed to invite more eligible people for a check, reduce geographical variation in uptake, prioritise engagement with non-attendees and promote greater use of evidence-based interventions especially where risk is identified.

Unintended Consequences of mHealth Interactive Voice Messages Promoting Contraceptive Use After Menstrual Regulation in Bangladesh: Intimate Partner Violence Results From a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Mobile phones for health (mHealth) hold promise for delivering behavioral interventions. We evaluated the effect of automated interactive voice messages promoting contraceptive use with a focus on long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) among women in Bangladesh who had undergone menstrual regulation (MR), a procedure to "regulate the menstrual cycle when menstruation is absent for a short duration." METHODS: We recruited MR clients from 41 public- and private-sector clinics immediately after MR. Eligibility criteria included having a personal mobile phone and consenting to receive messages about family planning by phone. We randomized participants remotely to an intervention group that received at least 11 voice messages about contraception over 4 months or to a control group (no messages). The primary outcome was LARC use at 4 months. Adverse events measured included experience of intimate partner violence (IPV). Researchers recruiting participants and 1 analyst were blinded to allocation groups. All analyses were intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02579785). RESULTS: Between December 2015 and March 2016, 485 women were allocated to the intervention group and 484 to the control group. We completed follow-up on 389 intervention and 383 control participants. Forty-eight (12%) participants in the intervention group and 59 (15%) in the control group reported using a LARC method at 4 months (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] using multiple imputation=0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.49 to 1.83; P=.22). Reported physical IPV was higher in the intervention group: 42 (11%) intervention versus 25 (7%) control (aOR=1.97; 95% CI=1.12 to 3.46; P=.03) when measured using a closed question naming acts of violence. No violence was reported in response to an open question about effects of being in the study. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention did not increase LARC use but had an unintended consequence of increasing self-reported IPV. Researchers and health program designers should consider possible negative impacts when designing and evaluating mHealth and other reproductive health interventions. IPV must be measured using closed questions naming acts of violence.

Mobile phone-based interventions for improving adherence to medication prescribed for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in adults.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of disability and mortality globally. Premature fatal and non-fatal CVD is considered to be largely preventable through the control of risk factors via lifestyle modifications and preventive medication. Lipid-lowering and antihypertensive drug therapies for primary prevention are cost-effective in reducing CVD morbidity and mortality among high-risk people and are recommended by international guidelines. However, adherence to medication prescribed for the prevention of CVD can be poor. Approximately 9% of CVD cases in the EU are attributed to poor adherence to vascular medications. Low-cost, scalable interventions to improve adherence to medications for the primary prevention of CVD have potential to reduce morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs associated with CVD. OBJECTIVES: To establish the effectiveness of interventions delivered by mobile phone to improve adherence to medication prescribed for the primary prevention of CVD in adults. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and two other databases on 21 June 2017 and two clinical trial registries on 14 July 2017. We searched reference lists of relevant papers. We applied no language or date restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials investigating interventions delivered wholly or partly by mobile phones to improve adherence to cardiovascular medications prescribed for the primary prevention of CVD. We only included trials with a minimum of one-year follow-up in order that the outcome measures related to longer-term, sustained medication adherence behaviours and outcomes. Eligible comparators were usual care or control groups receiving no mobile phone-delivered component of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. We contacted study authors for disaggregated data when trials included a subset of eligible participants. MAIN RESULTS: We included four trials with 2429 randomised participants. Participants were recruited from community-based primary care or outpatient clinics in high-income (Canada, Spain) and upper- to middle-income countries (South Africa, China). The interventions received varied widely; one trial evaluated an intervention focused on blood pressure medication adherence delivered solely through short messaging service (SMS), and one intervention involved blood pressure monitoring combined with feedback delivered via smartphone. Two trials involved interventions which targeted a combination of lifestyle modifications, alongside CVD medication adherence, one of which was delivered through text messages, written information pamphlets and self-completion cards for participants, and the other through a multi-component intervention comprising of text messages, a computerised CVD risk evaluation and face-to-face counselling. Due to heterogeneity in the nature and delivery of the interventions, we did not conduct a meta-analysis, and therefore reported results narratively.We judged the body of evidence for the effect of mobile phone-based interventions on objective outcomes (blood pressure and cholesterol) of low quality due to all included trials being at high risk of bias, and inconsistency in outcome effects. Of two trials targeting medication adherence alongside other lifestyle modifications, one reported a small beneficial intervention effect in reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (mean difference (MD) -9.2 mg/dL, 95% confidence interval (CI) -17.70 to -0.70; 304 participants), and the other found no benefit (MD 0.77 mg/dL, 95% CI -4.64 to 6.18; 589 participants). One trial (1372 participants) of a text messaging-based intervention targeting adherence showed a small reduction in systolic blood pressure (SBP) for the intervention arm which delivered information-only text messages (MD -2.2 mmHg, 95% CI -4.4 to -0.04), but uncertain evidence of benefit for the second intervention arm that provided additional interactivity (MD -1.6 mmHg, 95% CI -3.7 to 0.5). One study examined the effect of blood pressure monitoring combined with smartphone messaging, and reported moderate intervention benefits on SBP and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (SBP: MD -7.10 mmHg, 95% CI -11.61 to -2.59; DBP: -3.90 mmHg, 95% CI -6.45 to -1.35; 105 participants). There was mixed evidence from trials targeting medication adherence alongside lifestyle advice using multi-component interventions. One trial found large benefits for SBP and DBP (SBP: MD -12.45 mmHg, 95% CI -15.02 to -9.88; DBP: MD -12.23 mmHg, 95% CI -14.03 to -10.43; 589 participants), whereas the other trial demonstrated no beneficial effects on SBP or DBP (SBP: MD 0.83 mmHg, 95% CI -2.67 to 4.33; DBP: MD 1.64 mmHg, 95% CI -0.55 to 3.83; 304 participants).Two trials reported on adverse events and provided low-quality evidence that the interventions did not cause harm. One study provided low-quality evidence that there was no intervention effect on reported satisfaction with treatment.Two trials were conducted in high-income countries, and two in upper- to middle-income countries. The interventions evaluated employed between three and 16 behaviour change techniques according to coding using Michie's taxonomic method. Two trials evaluated interventions that involved potential users in their development. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is low-quality evidence relating to the effects of mobile phone-delivered interventions to increase adherence to medication prescribed for the primary prevention of CVD; some trials reported small benefits while others found no effect. There is low-quality evidence that these interventions do not result in harm. On the basis of this review, there is currently uncertainty around the effectiveness of these interventions. We identified six ongoing trials being conducted in a range of contexts including low-income settings with potential to generate more precise estimates of the effect of primary prevention medication adherence interventions delivered by mobile phone.

Comparing the characteristics of users of an online service for STI self-sampling with clinic service users: a cross-sectional analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Online services for self-sampling at home could improve access to STI testing; however, little is known about those using this new modality of care. This study describes the characteristics of users of online services and compares them with users of clinic services. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of routinely collected data on STI testing activity from online and clinic sexual health services in Lambeth and Southwark between 1January 2016 and 31March 2016. Activity was included for chlamydia, gonorrhoea, HIV and syphilis testing for residents of the boroughs aged 16 years and older. Logistic regression models were used to explore potential associations between type of service use with age group, gender, ethnic group, sexual orientation, positivity and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintiles. We used the same methods to explore potential associations between return of complete samples for testing with age group, gender, ethnic group, sexual orientation and IMD quintiles among online users. RESULTS: 6456 STI tests were carried out by residents in the boroughs. Of these, 3582 (55.5%) were performed using clinic services and 2874 (44.5%) using the online service. In multivariate analysis, online users were more likely than clinic users to be aged between 20 and 30 years, female, white British, homosexual or bisexual, test negative for chlamydia or gonorrhoea and live in less deprived areas. Of the individuals that ordered a kit from the online service, 72.5% returned sufficient samples. In multivariate analysis, returners were more likely than non-returners to be aged >20 years and white British. CONCLUSION: Nearly half (44.5%) of all basic STI testing was done online, although the characteristics of users of clinic and online services differed and positivity rates for those using the online service for testing were lower. Clinics remain an important point of access for some groups.

The effectiveness of smoking cessation, physical activity/diet and alcohol reduction interventions delivered by mobile phones for the prevention of non-communicable diseases: A systematic review of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a systematic review to assess the effectiveness of smoking cessation, physical activity (PA), diet, and alcohol reduction interventions delivered by mobile technology to prevent non-communicable diseases (NCDs). METHODS: We searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of mobile-based NCD prevention interventions using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, CINAHL (Jan 1990-Jan 2016). Two authors extracted data. FINDINGS: 71 trials were included: smoking cessation (n = 18); PA (n = 15), diet (n = 3), PA and diet (n = 25); PA, diet, and smoking cessation (n = 2); and harmful alcohol consumption (n = 8). 4 trials had low risk of bias. The effect of SMS-based smoking cessation support on biochemically verified continuous abstinence was pooled relative risk [RR] 2.19 [95% CI 1.80-2.68], I2 = 0%) and on verified 7 day point prevalence of smoking cessation was pooled RR 1.51 [95% CI 1.06-2.15], I2 = 0%, with no reported adverse events. There was no difference in peak oxygen intake at 3 months in a trial of an SMS-based PA intervention. The effect of SMS-based diet and PA interventions on: incidence of diabetes was pooled RR 0.67 [95% CI 0.49, 0.90], I2 = 0.0%; end-point weight was pooled MD -0.99Kg [95% CI -3.63, 1.64] I2 = 29.4%; % change in weight was pooled MD -3.1 [95%CI -4.86- -1.3] I2 0.3%; and on triglyceride levels was pooled MD -0.19 mmol/L [95% CI -0.29, -0.08], I2 = 0.0%. The results of other pooled analyses of the effect of SMS-based diet and PA interventions were heterogenous (I2 59-90%). The effects of alcohol reduction interventions were inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking cessation support delivered by SMS increases quitting rates. Trials of PA interventions reporting outcomes ≥3 months showed no benefits. There were at best modest benefits of diet and PA interventions. The effects of the most promising SMS-based smoking, diet and PA interventions on morbidity and mortality in high-risk groups should be established in adequately powered RCTs.

Internet-accessed sexually transmitted infection (e-STI) testing and results service: A randomised, single-blind, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Internet-accessed sexually transmitted infection testing (e-STI testing) is increasingly available as an alternative to testing in clinics. Typically this testing modality enables users to order a test kit from a virtual service (via a website or app), collect their own samples, return test samples to a laboratory, and be notified of their results by short message service (SMS) or telephone. e-STI testing is assumed to increase access to testing in comparison with face-to-face services, but the evidence is unclear. We conducted a randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of an e-STI testing and results service (chlamydia, gonorrhoea, HIV, and syphilis) on STI testing uptake and STI cases diagnosed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study took place in the London boroughs of Lambeth and Southwark. Between 24 November 2014 and 31 August 2015, we recruited 2,072 participants, aged 16-30 years, who were resident in these boroughs, had at least 1 sexual partner in the last 12 months, stated willingness to take an STI test, and had access to the internet. Those unable to provide consent and unable to read English were excluded. Participants were randomly allocated to receive 1 text message with the web link of an e-STI testing and results service (intervention group) or to receive 1 text message with the web link of a bespoke website listing the locations, contact details, and websites of 7 local sexual health clinics (control group). Participants were free to use any other services or interventions during the study period. The primary outcomes were self-reported STI testing at 6 weeks, verified by patient record checks, and self-reported STI diagnosis at 6 weeks, verified by patient record checks. Secondary outcomes were the proportion of participants prescribed treatment for an STI, time from randomisation to completion of an STI test, and time from randomisation to treatment of an STI. Participants were sent a £10 cash incentive on submission of self-reported data. We completed all follow-up, including patient record checks, by 17 June 2016. Uptake of STI testing was increased in the intervention group at 6 weeks (50.0% versus 26.6%, relative risk [RR] 1.87, 95% CI 1.63 to 2.15, P < 0.001). The proportion of participants diagnosed was 2.8% in the intervention group versus 1.4% in the control group (RR 2.10, 95% CI 0.94 to 4.70, P = 0.079). No evidence of heterogeneity was observed for any of the pre-specified subgroup analyses. The proportion of participants treated was 1.1% in the intervention group versus 0.7% in the control group (RR 1.72, 95% CI 0.71 to 4.16, P = 0.231). Time to test, was shorter in the intervention group compared to the control group (28.8 days versus 36.5 days, P < 0.001, test for difference in restricted mean survival time [RMST]), but no differences were observed for time to treatment (83.2 days versus 83.5 days, P = 0.51, test for difference in RMST). We were unable to recruit the planned 3,000 participants and therefore lacked power for the analyses of STI diagnoses and STI cases treated. CONCLUSIONS: The e-STI testing service increased uptake of STI testing for all groups including high-risk groups. The intervention required people to attend clinic for treatment and did not reduce time to treatment. Service innovations to improve treatment rates for those diagnosed online are required and could include e-treatment and postal treatment services. e-STI testing services require long-term monitoring and evaluation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN13354298.

Using automated voice messages linked to telephone counselling to increase post-menstrual regulation contraceptive uptake and continuation in Bangladesh: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Adoption of modern contraceptive methods after menstrual regulation (MR) is thought to reduce subsequent unwanted pregnancy and abortion. Long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) are highly effective at reducing unintended pregnancy, but uptake in Bangladesh is low. Providing information on the most effective methods of contraception increases uptake of more effective methods. This protocol describes a randomised controlled trial of an intervention delivered by mobile phone designed to support post-MR contraceptive use in Bangladesh. METHODS: This is a multi-site single blind individual randomised controlled trial. At least 960 women undergoing MR procedures at selected facilities will be recruited after their procedure by female research assistants. Women will be randomised into the control or intervention group with a 1:1 ratio. All participants will receive usual clinic care, including contraceptive counselling and the telephone number of a non-toll-free call centre which provides counselling on MR and contraception. During the 4 months after their MR procedure, intervention participants will be sent 11 recorded interactive voice messages to their mobile phone about contraception with a focus on their chosen method and LARCs. Each message allows the participant to connect directly to the call centre. The intervention is free to the user. The control group will receive no messages delivered by mobile phone. All participants will be asked to complete an in-person questionnaire at recruitment and follow-up questionnaires by telephone at 2 weeks, 4 months and 12 months after their MR. The primary outcome for the trial will be self-reported LARC use 4 months post-MR. Secondary outcomes include LARC use at 2 weeks and 12 months post-MR, use of any effective modern contraceptive method at 2 weeks, 4 months and 12 months post-MR, and contraceptive discontinuation, contraceptive method switching, pregnancy, subsequent MR and experience of violence during the 12 month study period. DISCUSSION: Mobile phones offer a low-cost mechanism for providing individualised support to women with contraception outside of the clinic setting. This study will provide information on the effects of such an intervention among MR clients in Bangladesh. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registered with clinicaltrials.gov Registration number: NCT02579785 Date of registration: 16th October 2015.

Medical treatments for incomplete miscarriage.

BACKGROUND: Miscarriage occurs in 10% to 15% of pregnancies. The traditional treatment, after miscarriage, has been to perform surgery to remove any remaining placental tissues in the uterus ('evacuation of uterus'). However, medical treatments, or expectant care (no treatment), may also be effective, safe, and acceptable. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness, safety, and acceptability of any medical treatment for incomplete miscarriage (before 24 weeks). SEARCH METHODS: We searched Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth's Trials Register (13 May 2016) and reference lists of retrieved papers. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials comparing medical treatment with expectant care or surgery, or alternative methods of medical treatment. We excluded quasi-randomised trials. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed the studies for inclusion, assessed risk of bias, and carried out data extraction. Data entry was checked. We assessed the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. MAIN RESULTS: We included 24 studies (5577 women). There were no trials specifically of miscarriage treatment after 13 weeks' gestation.Three trials involving 335 women compared misoprostol treatment (all vaginally administered) with expectant care. There was no difference in complete miscarriage (average risk ratio (RR) 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72 to 2.10; 2 studies, 150 women, random-effects; very low-quality evidence), or in the need for surgical evacuation (average RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.17 to 2.26; 2 studies, 308 women, random-effects; low-quality evidence). There were few data on 'deaths or serious complications'. For unplanned surgical intervention, we did not identify any difference between misoprostol and expectant care (average RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.17 to 2.26; 2 studies, 308 women, random-effects; low-quality evidence).Sixteen trials involving 4044 women addressed the comparison of misoprostol (7 studies used oral administration, 6 studies used vaginal, 2 studies sublingual, 1 study combined vaginal + oral) with surgical evacuation. There was a slightly lower incidence of complete miscarriage with misoprostol (average RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.98; 15 studies, 3862 women, random-effects; very low-quality evidence) but with success rate high for both methods. Overall, there were fewer surgical evacuations with misoprostol (average RR 0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.11; 13 studies, 3070 women, random-effects; very low-quality evidence) but more unplanned procedures (average RR 5.03, 95% CI 2.71 to 9.35; 11 studies, 2690 women, random-effects; low-quality evidence). There were few data on 'deaths or serious complications'. Nausea was more common with misoprostol (average RR 2.50, 95% CI 1.53 to 4.09; 11 studies, 3015 women, random-effects; low-quality evidence). We did not identify any difference in women's satisfaction between misoprostol and surgery (average RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.00; 9 studies, 3349 women, random-effects; moderate-quality evidence). More women had vomiting and diarrhoea with misoprostol compared with surgery (vomiting: average RR 1.97, 95% CI 1.36 to 2.85; 10 studies, 2977 women, random-effects; moderate-quality evidence; diarrhoea: average RR 4.82, 95% CI 1.09 to 21.32; 4 studies, 757 women, random-effects; moderate-quality evidence).Five trials compared different routes of administration, or doses, or both, of misoprostol. There was no clear evidence of one regimen being superior to another. Limited evidence suggests that women generally seem satisfied with their care. Long-term follow-up from one included study identified no difference in subsequent fertility between the three approaches. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The available evidence suggests that medical treatment, with misoprostol, and expectant care are both acceptable alternatives to routine surgical evacuation given the availability of health service resources to support all three approaches. Further studies, including long-term follow-up, are clearly needed to confirm these findings. There is an urgent need for studies on women who miscarry at more than 13 weeks' gestation.

Doctors or mid-level providers for abortion.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends that abortion can be provided at the lowest level of the healthcare system. Training mid-level providers, such as midwives, nurses and other non-physician providers, to conduct first trimester aspiration abortions and manage medical abortions has been proposed as a way to increase women's access to safe abortion procedures. OBJECTIVES: To assess the safety and effectiveness of abortion procedures administered by mid-level providers compared to doctors. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the CENTRAL Issue 7, MEDLINE and POPLINE databases for comparative studies of doctor and mid-level providers of abortion services. We searched for studies published in any language from January 1980 until 15 August 2014. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (clustered or not clustered), prospective cohort studies or observational studies that compared the safety or effectiveness (or both) of any type of first trimester abortion procedure, administered by any type of mid-level provider or doctors, were eligible for inclusion in the review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two independent review authors screened abstracts for eligibility and double-extracted data from the included studies using a pre-tested form. We meta-analysed primary outcome data using both fixed-effect and random-effects models to obtain pooled risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We carried out separate analyses by study design (RCT or cohort) and type of abortion procedure (medical versus surgical). MAIN RESULTS: Eight studies involving 22,018 participants met our eligibility criteria. Five studies (n = 18,962) assessed the safety and effectiveness of surgical abortion procedures administered by mid-level providers compared to doctors. Three studies (n = 3056) assessed the safety and effectiveness of medical abortion procedures. The surgical abortion studies (one RCT and four cohort studies) were carried out in the United States, India, South Africa and Vietnam. The medical abortion studies (two RCTs and one cohort study) were carried out in India, Sweden and Nepal. The studies included women with gestational ages up to 14 weeks for surgical abortion and nine weeks for medical abortion.Risk of selection bias was considered to be low in the three RCTs, unclear in four observational studies and high in one observational study. Concealment bias was considered to be low in the three RCTs and high in all five observational studies. Although none of the eight studies performed blinding of the participants to the provider type, we considered the performance bias to be low as this is part of the intervention. Detection bias was considered to be high in all eight studies as none of the eight studies preformed blinding of the outcome assessment. Attrition bias was low in seven studies and high in one, with over 20% attrition. We considered six studies to have unclear risk of selective reporting bias as their protocols had not been published. The remaining two studies had published their protocols. Few other sources of bias were found.Based on an analysis of three cohort studies, the risk of surgical abortion failure was significantly higher when provided by mid-level providers than when procedures were administered by doctors (RR 2.25, 95% CI 1.38 to 3.68), however the quality of evidence for this outcome was deemed to be very low. For surgical abortion procedures, we found no significant differences in the risk of complications between mid-level providers and doctors (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.17 to 5.70 from RCTs; RR 1.38, 95% CI 0.70 to 2.72 from observational studies). When we combined the data for failure and complications for surgical abortion we found no significant differences between mid-level providers and doctors in both the observational study analysis (RR 1.36, 95% CI 0.86 to 2.14) and the RCT analysis (RR 3.07, 95% CI 0.16 to 59.08). The quality of evidence of the outcome for RCT studies was considered to be low and for observational studies very low. For medical abortion procedures the risk of failure was not different for mid-level providers or doctors (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.36 from RCTs; RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.88 from observational studies). The quality of evidence of this outcome for the RCT analysis was considered to be high, although the quality of evidence of the observational studies was considered to be very low. There were no complications reported in the three medical abortion studies. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There was no statistically significant difference in the risk of failure for medical abortions performed by mid-level providers compared with doctors. Observational data indicate that there may be a higher risk of abortion failure for surgical abortion procedures administered by mid-level providers, but the number of studies is small and more robust data from controlled trials are needed. There were no statistically significant differences in the risk of complications for first trimester surgical abortions performed by mid-level providers compared with doctors.

Child feces disposal practices in rural Orissa: a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 2.5 billion people worldwide lack access to improved sanitation facilities. While large-scale programs in some countries have increased latrine coverage, they sometimes fail to ensure optimal latrine use, including the safe disposal of child feces, a significant source of exposure to fecal pathogens. We undertook a cross-sectional study to explore fecal disposal practices among children in rural Orissa, India in villages where the Government of India's Total Sanitation Campaign had been implemented at least three years prior to the study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted surveys with heads of 136 households with 145 children under 5 years of age in 20 villages. We describe defecation and feces disposal practices and explore associations between safe disposal and risk factors. Respondents reported that children commonly defecated on the ground, either inside the household (57.5%) for pre-ambulatory children or around the compound (55.2%) for ambulatory children. Twenty percent of pre-ambulatory children used potties and nappies; the same percentage of ambulatory children defecated in a latrine. While 78.6% of study children came from 106 households with a latrine, less than a quarter (22.8%) reported using them for disposal of child feces. Most child feces were deposited with other household waste, both for pre-ambulatory (67.5%) and ambulatory (58.1%) children. After restricting the analysis to households owning a latrine, the use of a nappy or potty was associated with safe disposal of feces (OR 6.72, 95%CI 1.02-44.38) though due to small sample size the regression could not adjust for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: In the area surveyed, the Total Sanitation Campaign has not led to high levels of safe disposal of child feces. Further research is needed to identify the actual scope of this potential gap in programming, the health risk presented and interventions to minimize any adverse effect.

Impact of Indian Total Sanitation Campaign on latrine coverage and use: a cross-sectional study in Orissa three years following programme implementation.

BACKGROUND: Faced with a massive shortfall in meeting sanitation targets, some governments have implemented campaigns that use subsidies focused on latrine construction to overcome income constraints and rapidly expand coverage. In settings like rural India where open defecation is common, this may result in sub-optimal compliance (use), thereby continuing to leave the population exposed to human excreta. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate latrine coverage and use among 20 villages (447 households, 1933 individuals) in Orissa, India where the Government of India's Total Sanitation Campaign had been implemented at least three years previously. We defined coverage as the proportion of households that had a latrine; for use we identified the proportion of households with at least one reported user and among those, the extent of reported use by each member of the household. RESULTS: Mean latrine coverage among the villages was 72% (compared to <10% in comparable villages in the same district where the Total Sanitation Campaign had not yet been implemented), though three of the villages had less than 50% coverage. Among these households with latrines, more than a third (39%) were not being used by any member of the household. Well over a third (37%) of the members of households with latrines reported never defecating in their latrines. Less than half (47%) of the members of such households reported using their latrines at all times for defecation. Combined with the 28% of households that did not have latrines, it appears that most defecation events in these communities are still practiced in the open. CONCLUSION: A large-scale campaign to implement sanitation has achieved substantial gains in latrine coverage in this population. Nevertheless, gaps in coverage and widespread continuation of open defecation will result in continued exposure to human excreta, reducing the potential for health gains.